Prognostic utility of Fibrosis-4 Index for risk of subsequent liver and cardiovascular events, and all-cause mortality in individuals with obesity and/or type 2 diabetes: a longitudinal cohort study.

Background: The Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4) is used as a non-invasive tool for the presence of advanced liver fibrosis in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease and type 2 diabetes. However, evidence for an association between FIB-4 and risk of mortality and/or liver-related clinical outcomes is limited. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between FIB-4 and subsequent liver events, cardiovascular events, and all-cause mortality in individuals with obesity and/or type 2 diabetes examined in routine general practice. Methods: This was a longitudinal cohort study in which eligible adults had obesity and/or type 2 diabetes and ≥1 FIB-4 score calculable from UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD after 1 January 2001. No alcohol-related disorders and/or chronic liver diseases (except non-alcoholic fatty liver disease) and/or no prescriptions of drugs inducing liver disease were permitted. Individuals were followed until time of first event, 10 years, or 1 January 2020. Analyses were conducted using Aalen-Johansen cumulative incidence functions and Cox proportional hazards models. Findings: Among 44,481 included individuals (mean age 58·8 years; 54% female), there were 979 liver, 6002 cardiovascular, and 8971 mortality events during the 10 years of follow-up. At 10 years, the cumulative incidence of liver events in the high (>2·67), indeterminate (1·30-2·67), and low (<1·30) baseline FIB-4 risk groups were 15%, 3%, and 1%, respectively. Age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for liver events were elevated in high (16·46; 95% confidence interval [CI] 13·65-19·85) and indeterminate (2·45; 95% CI 2·07-2·90) versus low FIB-4 risk groups. Similar results were found for cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality. Among 20,433 individuals with ≥2 FIB-4 measurements, increase/decrease in FIB-4 12 months after baseline was directly associated with risk of liver events: compared with individuals with low baseline FIB-4 and no change in FIB-4 (reference), the adjusted HR (95% CI) for those with high baseline FIB-4 was 24·27 (16·98-34·68) with a one-unit FIB-4 increase, and 10·90 (7·90-15·05) with a one-unit decrease. Interpretation: In addition to its value as a diagnostic tool, FIB-4 has clinical utility as a prognostic biomarker. Sequential measurement provides a pragmatic, tractable monitoring biomarker that refines risk assessment for liver events, cardiovascular events, and mortality. Funding: Novo Nordisk A/S.

Dietary intake and adipose tissue content of long-chain n-3 PUFAs and subsequent 5-y change in body weight and waist circumference.

Background: Adding long-chain n-3 (ω-3) polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) to a rodent diet reduces fat mass and prevents the development of obesity, but evidence of a similar effect in humans is rather limited.Objectives: We investigated the associations between dietary intake and adipose tissue content of long-chain n-3 PUFAs and subsequent 5-y change in body weight and waist circumference in humans. Effect modification by the carbohydrate:protein ratio and glycemic index was also investigated.Design: A total of 29,152 participants included in the Diet, Cancer, and Health cohort were followed. Dietary intake was assessed with the use of a validated 192-item semiquantitative food-frequency questionnaire. Adipose tissue content of fatty acids was determined by gas chromatography in a random sample of the cohort (n = 1660). Anthropometric measurements were taken at baseline and 5 y later. Associations were investigated with the use of a linear regression model.Results: For high (1.22 g/d) compared with low (0.28 g/d) total n-3 PUFA intake, the difference in 5-y weight change was 147.6 g (95% CI: -42.3, 337.5 g); P-trend = 0.088. No associations between the individual n-3 PUFAs eicosapentaenoic acid, docosapentaenoic acid, and docosahexaenoic acid were observed. Intake of n-3 PUFAs was not associated with a 5-y change in waist circumference. For high (0.16%) compared with low (0.06%) adipose tissue content of EPA, the difference in 5-y weight change was -649.6 g (95% CI: -1254.2, -44.9 g); P-trend = 0.027. No associations between total n-3 PUFA, docosapentaenoic acid, and docosahexaenoic acid and 5-y weight change were observed. Adipose tissue content of n-3 PUFAs was not associated with 5-y change in waist circumference. No effect modification by carbohydrate:protein ratio or glycemic index was found.Conclusion: Dietary intake and adipose tissue content of long-chain n-3 PUFAs were neither consistently nor appreciably associated with change in body weight or waist circumference.

Comparison of HapMap and 1000 Genomes Reference Panels in a Large-Scale Genome-Wide Association Study.

An increasing number of genome-wide association (GWA) studies are now using the higher resolution 1000 Genomes Project reference panel (1000G) for imputation, with the expectation that 1000G imputation will lead to the discovery of additional associated loci when compared to HapMap imputation. In order to assess the improvement of 1000G over HapMap imputation in identifying associated loci, we compared the results of GWA studies of circulating fibrinogen based on the two reference panels. Using both HapMap and 1000G imputation we performed a meta-analysis of 22 studies comprising the same 91,953 individuals. We identified six additional signals using 1000G imputation, while 29 loci were associated using both HapMap and 1000G imputation. One locus identified using HapMap imputation was not significant using 1000G imputation. The genome-wide significance threshold of 5×10-8 is based on the number of independent statistical tests using HapMap imputation, and 1000G imputation may lead to further independent tests that should be corrected for. When using a stricter Bonferroni correction for the 1000G GWA study (P-value < 2.5×10-8), the number of loci significant only using HapMap imputation increased to 4 while the number of loci significant only using 1000G decreased to 5. In conclusion, 1000G imputation enabled the identification of 20% more loci than HapMap imputation, although the advantage of 1000G imputation became less clear when a stricter Bonferroni correction was used. More generally, our results provide insights that are applicable to the implementation of other dense reference panels that are under development.

Sex-specific associations between birth weight and adult primary liver cancer in a large cohort of Danish children.

Whether the prenatal period is critical for the development of adult primary liver cancer (PLC) is sparsely investigated. Recently, attention has been drawn to potential sex-differences in the early origins of adult disease. The association between birth weight and adult PLC, separately in men and women was investigated, using a large cohort of 217,227 children (51% boys), born from 1936 to 1980, from the Copenhagen School Health Records Register, and followed them until 2010 in national registers. Hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of PLC (30 years or older) were estimated by Cox regression models stratified by birth cohort. During 5.1 million person-years of follow-up, 185 men and 65 women developed PLC. Sex modified the association between birth weight and adult PLC (p values for interaction = 0.0005). Compared with a sex-specific reference group of birth weights between 3.25 and 3.75 kg, men with birth weights between 2.00 and 3.25 kg and 3.75-5.50 kg, had HRs of 1.48 (1.06-2.05) and 0.85 (0.56-1.28), respectively. Among women the corresponding HRs were 1.71 (0.90-3.29) and 3.43 (1.73-6.82). Associations were similar for hepatocellular carcinoma only, across year of birth, and after accounting for diagnoses of alcohol-related disorders, viral hepatitis and biliary cirrhosis. Prenatal exposures influenced the risk of adult PLC, and the effects at the high birth weight levels appeared to be sex-specific. These findings underscore the importance of considering sex-specific mechanisms in the early origins of adult PLC.

Body mass index in school-aged children and the risk of routinely diagnosed non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in adulthood: a prospective study based on the Copenhagen School Health Records Register.

OBJECTIVE: The relation between childhood overweight and adult non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is largely unknown. We investigated if weight and weight gain in childhood increases the risk of being diagnosed with NAFLD in routine clinical settings in adulthood. PARTICIPANTS: We studied 244,464 boys and girls, born between 1930 and 1989, who attended school in Copenhagen, Denmark. Their heights and weights were measured by physicians or nurses at mandatory school health examinations at ages 7-13 years. Body mass index (BMI) z-scores were calculated from an internal age-specific and sex-specific reference. OUTCOME MEASURES: NAFLD reported in the National Patient Register and the National Register of Pathology at 18 years of age or older. HRs with 95% CIs were estimated. RESULTS: During follow-up, 1264 and 1106 NAFLD cases, respectively, occurred in men and women. In both sexes, childhood BMI z-score was not consistently associated with adult NAFLD. Change in BMI z-score between 7 and 13 years of age was positively associated with NAFLD in both sexes. When adjusted for BMI z-score at age 7 years, the HRs of adult NAFLD were 1.15 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.26) and 1.12 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.23) per 1-unit gain in BMI z-score in men and women, respectively. Associations were similar when adjusted for BMI z-score at age 13 years, and were consistent across birth years. CONCLUSIONS: A BMI gain in school-aged children is associated with adult NAFLD. Intriguingly, BMI gain appears to have an effect on adult NAFLD irrespective of either the initial or the attained BMI. Taken together, our results suggest that BMI gain in childhood, rather than the level of BMI per se, is important in the development of adult NAFLD.

Does prenatal exposure to vitamin D-fortified margarine and milk alter birth weight? A societal experiment.

The present study examined whether exposure to vitamin D from fortified margarine and milk during prenatal life influenced mean birth weight and the risk of high or low birth weight. The study was based on the Danish vitamin D fortification programme, which was a societal intervention with mandatory fortification of margarine during 1961-1985 and voluntary fortification of low-fat milk between 1972 and 1976. The influence of prenatal vitamin D exposure on birth weight was investigated among 51 883 Danish children, by comparing birth weight among individuals born during 2 years before or after the initiation and termination of vitamin D fortification programmes. In total, four sets of analyses were performed. Information on birth weight was available in the Copenhagen School Health Record Register for all school children in Copenhagen. The mean birth weight was lower among the exposed than non-exposed children during all study periods (milk initiation - 20·3 (95 % CI - 39·2, - 1·4) g; milk termination - 25·9 (95 % CI - 46·0, - 5·7) g; margarine termination - 45·7 (95 % CI - 66·6, - 24·8) g), except during the period around the initiation of margarine fortification, where exposed children were heavier than non-exposed children (margarine initiation 27·4 (95 % CI 10·8, 44·0) g). No differences in the odds of high (>4000 g) or low ( < 2500 g) birth weight were observed between the children exposed and non-exposed to vitamin D fortification prenatally. Prenatal exposure to vitamin D from fortified margarine and milk altered birth weight, but the effect was small and inconsistent, reaching the conclusion that vitamin D fortification seems to be clinically irrelevant in relation to fetal growth.

Adipose tissue trans-fatty acids and changes in body weight and waist circumference.

Previous studies have suggested that the intake of trans-fatty acids (TFA) plays a role in the development of obesity. The proportions of adipose tissue fatty acids not synthesised endogenously in humans, such as TFA, usually correlate well with the dietary intake. Hence, the use of these biomarkers may provide a more accurate measure of habitual TFA intake than that obtained with dietary questionnaires. The objective of the present study was to investigate the associations between the proportions of specific TFA in adipose tissue and subsequent changes in weight and waist circumference (WC). The relative content of fatty acids in adipose tissue biopsies from a random sample of 996 men and women aged 50-64 years drawn from a Danish cohort study was determined by GC. Baseline data on weight, WC and potential confounders were available together with information on weight and WC 5 years after enrolment. The exposure measures were total trans-octadecenoic acids (18:1t), 18:1 Δ6-10t, vaccenic acid (18:1 Δ11t) and rumenic acid (18:2 Δ9c, 11t). Data were analysed using multiple regression with cubic spline modelling. The median proportion of total adipose tissue 18:1t was 1.52% (90% central range 0.98, 2.19) in men and 1.47% (1.01, 2.19) in women. No significant associations were observed between the proportions of total 18:1t, 18:1 Δ6-10t, vaccenic acid or rumenic acid and changes in weight or WC. The present study suggests that the proportions of specific TFA in adipose tissue are not associated with subsequent changes in weight or WC within the exposure range observed in this population.

Associations between general and abdominal adiposity and mortality in individuals with diabetes mellitus.

Individuals with diabetes mellitus are advised to achieve a healthy weight to prevent complications. However, fat mass distribution has hardly been investigated as a risk factor for diabetes complications. The authors studied associations between body mass index, waist circumference, waist/hip ratio, and waist/height ratio and mortality among individuals with diabetes mellitus. Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, a subcohort was defined as 5,435 individuals with a confirmed self-report of diabetes mellitus at baseline in 1992-2000. Participants were aged 57.3 (standard deviation, 6.3) years, 54% were men, the median diabetes duration was 4.6 (interquartile range, 2.0-9.8) years, and 22% of the participants used insulin. Body mass index, as indicator of general obesity, was not associated with higher mortality, whereas all measurements of abdominal obesity showed a positive association. Associations generally were slightly weaker in women. The strongest association was observed for waist/height ratio: In the fifth quintile, the hazard rate ratio was 1.88 (95% confidence interval: 1.33, 2.65) for men and 2.46 (95% confidence interval: 1.46, 4.14) for women. Measurements of abdominal, but not general, adiposity were associated with higher mortality in diabetic individuals. The waist/height ratio showed the strongest association. Respective indicators might be investigated in risk prediction models.

Fatness-associated FTO gene variant increases mortality independent of fatness--in cohorts of Danish men.

BACKGROUND: The A-allele of the single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs9939609, in the FTO gene is associated with increased fatness. We hypothesized that the SNP is associated with morbidity and mortality through the effect on fatness. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In a population of 362,200 Danish young men, examined for military service between 1943 and 1977, all obese (BMI>or=31.0 kg/m(2)) and a random 1% sample of the others were identified. In 1992-94, at an average age of 46 years, 752 of the obese and 876 of the others were re-examined, including measurements of weight, fat mass, height, and waist circumference, and DNA sampling. Hospitalization and death occurring during the following median 13.5 years were ascertained by linkage to national registers. Cox regression analyses were performed using a dominant effect model (TT vs. TA or AA). In total 205 men died. Mortality was 42% lower (p = 0.001) with the TT genotype than in A-allele carriers. This phenomenon was observed in both the obese and the randomly sampled cohort when analysed separately. Adjustment for fatness covariates attenuated the association only slightly. Exploratory analyses of cause-specific mortality and morbidity prior to death suggested a general protective effect of the TT genotype, whereas there were only weak associations with disease incidence, except for diseases of the nervous system. CONCLUSION: Independent of fatness, the A-allele of the FTO SNP appears to increase mortality of a magnitude similar to smoking, but without a particular underlying disease pattern barring an increase in the risk of diseases of the nervous system.